Virginia Transportation Modeling Program

Developer:
VHB

Completion year:
2005

Base year:
2003

Forecast year:
• 2003 existing and committed
• 2003 constrained long-range plan
• 2003 vision long-range plan

2000 population:
83,000

Area:
425 square miles

Jurisdictions:
Winchester and
Frederick County

Air quality status:
Early action compact

Internal TAZs:
167

links/nodes:
3,083/2,210

Software:
TP+

Trip purposes:
Home-based work
Home-based other
Non-home based

Time period modeled:
Daily, morning peak hour,
evening peak hour

Modes:
Passenger vehicle

The Winchester model covers the Winchester-Frederick County Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO), which includes the city of Winchester, the town of Stephens City and Frederick County.

The Winchester modeling area is not adjacent to or overlapping with any existing models. The closest model is Washington, D.C.

Travel characteristics

Winchester is a small, growing metropolitan area located in the northern Shenandoah Valley, along the Interstate 81 corridor.

The principal north-south routes are I-81 and U.S. Route 522. U.S. Route 50 and state Route 7 are the major east-west routes.

A major trip generator is Shenodoah University, with 3,000 students.

The MPO population increased from about 68,000 in 1990 to 83,000 in 2000, a 22 percent jump. Most of this growth is occuring in suburban areas of eastern Frederick County, which is becoming a bedroom community for Washington, D.C.

In contrast, Winchester grew modestly, from about 22,000 to about 23,500 from 1990 to 2000, a seven percent increase.

This trend is expected to continue. Frederick County's population is projected to increase 62 percent between 2000 and 2030, to about 96,000.

Winchester is projected to increase 24 percent to about 29,000.

The Winchester MPO's population is projected to increase 51percent from 2000 to 2030, to 125,000.

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