Virginia Transportation Modeling Program
Statewide Travel Model
Model Facts
Last update: May 2007
Developer:
Wilbur Smith and Associates
Completion year:
2005
Base year:
2000
Forecast year:
2025
2000 population:
7,079,000
Area:
Virginia and
surrounding states
Jurisdiction:
Commonwealth of
Virginia
Internal TAZs:
1,642 (Total); 1,060 (Va.)
and 582 (Non-Va.)
Internal sub-TAZs:
7,007 (Total); 6,425 (Va.)
and 582 (Non-Va.)
links/nodes:
246,935/108,576
Software:
TP+
Trip Purposes:
• Long distance (trip length
> 100 minutes): Business,
tourist, other
• Short distance (trip length
< 100 minutes): Home-based work
Home-based other
Non-home based
Time period modeled:
Daily
Modes:
• Passenger: vehicle (limited
toll
evaluation ability), rail
• Freight: Heavy trucks
(OD trips are forecasted
for rail and air modes
as well as ports)
The primary model area includes the entire state and portions of surrounding states, in order to adequately capture travel into and out of the commonwealth.
Likewise, in order to sufficiently characterize long-distance interstate passenger and freight movements, the continental United States is included in the model area.
However, the model is intended to forecast intercity (non-urbanized) travel primarily within Virginia.
Travel characteristics
Passenger
In Virginia, over 95 percent of the daily passenger trips are 100 minutes or less in length.
Long-distance passenger trips account for 27 percent of interstate and arterial VMT.
For in-state long distance travel, Richmond has the highest trip production rates, especially for business trips, while Virginia Beach has the highest trip attraction rate for tourists.
When considering trips from all over the United States, Washington, D.C., has the highest trip rates by far.
Intrastate passenger rail trips totaled 18,877 per day. The passenger mode share of air for in-state trips (only 361 trips per day for year 2000) is too insignificant to be included in the model set.
Special generators included in the statewide model are few, as only those outside the urban regions are applicable:
- Natural Bridge
- Wintergreen Resort
- Assateague Island
- Fort A.P. Hill
- The Homestead
- Luray Caverns
- Shenandoah National Park
Freight
The largest freight movements by tonnage are trucks (60 percent) followed by rail (35 percent), water (4 percent) and air (0.1 percent).
More than half (56 percent) of the freight movements originate and/or terminate in the state. The remainder are thru movements (44 percent).
By region, Norfolk leads with 13 percent of total freight movements, followed by the city of Fairfax (11.8 percent).
The most popular destination for freight movements is Fairfax County, which accounts for 20.5 percent of all terminating freight shipments.
Freight movements are estimated to increase 97 percent by 2025, with very little shift in overall mode share.
